Portfolio Changes. Microsoft & Gabriel ResourcesApril 9th, 2012 | Posted by in Portfolio | Stocks | Trades
I just sold my Microsoft position in full. As you know, Microsoft was 4% of my trading account and I bought it on August 24 2011, at $24.78 USD. I sold it today at $31.32 USD, for a profit of 26.4%. BP is still hold as it has not appreciate much and I still believe it is extremely undervalued.
You can refer to this page: http://octafinance.com/2011/microsoft-and-bp-value-investments/ for valuation of Microsoft and BP.
As you can see, Microsoft has 11.3 PE right now and has forward P/E 10.4. I bought it at P/E 8.1 and forward 7.66.
Today, I also increased my position in Gabriel Resources Ltd. I increased my position by 100%, so Gabriel Resources is now almost 1.7% of my portfolio. The company’s market cap is $1.15 billion CAD today and its price has collapsed about 66% from the high in 2011. The stock has dropped 45% just in the last 2 trading sessions, so now could prove to be the best time to buy.
Even though I try to pick bottoms, this might not be the final low. Not only gold is still overvalued, the stock market is ready to move down but overall the interest in precious metal stocks is collapsing. Still, we should not forget that sometimes the gold miners act as a leading indicator and their weakness so far might have already priced the above mentioned negative factors. Please keep in mind that junior miners’ risks are high and if you can not afford to lose what you invest then you probably should just close this page. For these who are still here I provide some more information on what is happening with this company.
1. Insiders and big shareholders of the stock has not sold recently. The highest weekly stock change was for about 5 million shares while the big shareholders in Gabriel Resources own usually atleast 30 million shares.
2. In my opinion, the recent sell-off of the stock was due to not only the negative events around the project to mine Rosia Montana but also because gold is weak and gold stocks has broken most supports and are in downtrend.
3. IMF is still supporting the Romanian economy and require the government to continue their progress in allowing foreign companies to effectively manage local projects and to participate in auctions and tenders for local resources. Not only Romania needs the projected financial and economic effects that will come with Gabriel mining operations, but the government also needs to satisfy its creditor IMF and support similar projects. As soon as IMF credits Romania and its economy is so weak, there is little risk that Gabriel Resources will lose its licenses and will lose its privilege to develop this mine.
I quote here the president and CEO of Gabriel Resources: "the Company, with the benefit of further advice of counsel, believes that this issue has been widely misunderstood and misinterpreted in media and other statements suchthat the market reaction does not properly reflect the facts or the recent progress the Company has made in advancing the Rosia Montana Project ("Project").
The Company has been advised that continuation in the progress of environmental and other permitting for the Project should not be affected by the AICA ruling. Summary Background to the AICA Ruling Romania manages its land planning through several levels of zoningwhich include (i) General Urbanism Plans and accompanying local regulations ("PUG") and (ii) Zonal Urbanism Plans and accompanying local regulations ("PUZ"). In 2002, the local council of Rosia Montana passed resolutions approving a PUG and also a PUZ designating an industrial zone under the footprint of the proposed new mine at Rosia Montana (known as an "Industrial Area PUZ"). The AICA upheld a previous ruling that a 2009 decision by the localcouncil of Rosia Montana to ratify the 2002 approval of the PUG and Industrial Area PUZ was illegally adopted and was invalid. However, the AICA did not rule explicitly that the original 2002 local council decision was invalid. Detailed background to this case and the urbanism plan permitting process is provided in the annex to this release.The AICA ruling will be followed in the coming months by a written judgment. It is important to note that the Industrial Area PUZ was already in the process of being amended at the time of the AICA ruling and that the Company has been advised that the new Industrial Area PUZ should be unaffected by the above legal proceedings. Moreover, the new Industrial Area PUZ is very well advanced, having been initiated in 2006, with 19out of the total number of 22 endorsements necessary for the approval of the new Industrial Area PUZ already obtained. Upon completion of any amendments and receipt of the remaining endorsements, the local council of Rosia Montana will be in a position to update the Industrial Area PUZ.
After reading the president’s update and other medial announcements we can conclude that Alba Iulia’s court decision is not so significant and do not justify the market’s reaction.
There is only one risk that I still worry about and consider of significant importance. This is an election year for Romania and the opposition party strongly opposes this project. I have no idea what is their true rationale behind their contradistinction with the leading party but if they win the elections it might be a red flag. I will follow the Romanian elections closely and I will update you accordingly.
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