NovaGold Position Increased. Update to portfolio.

March 21st, 2012 | Posted by octafinance in Alternative Investments | Commodities | Currencies | Gold | Portfolio | Precious Metals | Stocks - (Comments Off)

Today I increased the portfolio’s Novagold position by 50% to 0.3% of the portfolio.  As Novagold declined about 20% since my initial purchase I have decided to add to the position as I find the stock even more undervalued now. The portfolio’s total exposure to precious metal stocks is now 1.8%.

I still believe that there is significant downside risk to gold, silver and precious metal stocks so I look forward to increasing the portfolio exposure if declines happen. I believe that the total exposure might go up to 5% until a final bottom is formed in this sector.

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Japan’s Debt Crisis a Follow-up Review

March 14th, 2012 | Posted by octafinance in Bonds | Currencies | Europe | Japan | Options - (2 Comments)

This is a continuation of the article “Japan’s debt crisis comes after Europe buy some long term OTM yen puts”

Surprisingly honest, Japanese Ministry of Finance official admits that “Japan is fiscally worse than Greece“. Bloomberg is reporting that, at a conference in Tokyo, Yasushi Kinoshita said “Japan’s 2011 fiscal deficit was up to 10% of GDP and its debt-to-GDP has soared to over 230%”. It seems that Kinoshita is worried that there is a big risk of shocks even with large amount of JGBs that are held domestically. I completely agree with him as stated in my analysis.

And now a former top Japanese currency official:  “The Bank of Japan is locked into purchasing more government bonds and may contribute to a loosening of fiscal discipline in the world’s largest public debt market”. “Since they have come this far, if the BOJ stops purchasing bonds, there will be a fall in bond prices and huge valuation losses for banks.”  said Makoto Utsumi, former vice finance minister for international affairs and now president of Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd.

BOJ last month increased bond purchases through its asset fund by 10 trillion yen ($123 billion) to $374 billion QE as part of measures to counter deflation and spur growth. That means that BOJ will monetize most of the deficit that Japan has. Don’t underestimate the significance of such program, the Japan’s economy is much smaller than the USA one.

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When to worry about Hyperinflation. Where it could happen?

March 7th, 2012 | Posted by octafinance in Bonds | Currencies | Europe | Japan | Uncategorized - (3 Comments)

While some people are worried whether QE3 will be initiated so they can reap some profits there are others who are worried that hyperinflation might suddenly happen and destroy their wealth.  Because I received a few emails from such nervous investors and businessman from Europe and USA, I have decided to dedicate this post to them and assure them that even though money printing is risky and causes hyperinflation, we have nothing to worry about in Europe and USA.

Hyperinflation is one of the worst systemic risks. People and investors usually avoid holding much cash because they believe that hyperinflation might destroy it and they are partly right in their assessment. The only problem with that assumption is that there are specific causes that result in hyperinflation and cash might be a good option for now, even for those that hold Euros.

There have been 28 episodes of hyperinflation in national economies in the 20th century, with 20 occurring after 1980. Peter Bernholz, (more…)

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